The US and India deals show any hope of rejoining the EU is over

The Brexiteers are crowing. The two major trade deals struck in one week are proof, they say, of how they were right all along, that Britain would only prosper from leaving the EU.

Putting aside the fact that both agreements have provoked discord – India’s because of the exemption from national insurance of secondees and America’s due to its narrow scope and limited concessions – there is no doubt they represent an achievement for Sir Keir Starmer and his team.

They have taken a long time coming but that does not make them less commendable. Yes, they are precisely the type of pact we were promised when we left. Britain, we were assured back then, would be able to strike out on its own and negotiate independently of the hindrance of the European bloc.

So, why on the same day that Donald Trump and Starmer conducted their unlikely bromance via speaker phone, did Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey say the UK must do everything to rebuild trade with the EU?

Choosing his words carefully, Bailey said: “Having a more open economy to trade with the European Union … would be beneficial, because there has been a fall-off in goods trade with the EU over recent years.”

Doubtless mindful of provoking a row and reopening referendum wounds, Bailey refused to pass judgement on the UK’s exit from the EU. He did not need to. The results speak for themselves: the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, but in key areas like food and drink, exports have dropped by more than a third since we departed.

That is business and profit we desperately require and we voluntarily surrendered. Not only that, but where custom remains, UK firms must overcome red tape and barriers that simply did not exist when we were in the circle.

It is not something the anti-EU lobby choose to acknowledge. Indeed, they took delight in witnessing the former arch-Remainer, Peter Mandelson, standing and smiling on Trump’s left shoulder as the president signed the trade compact. It was ironic, but while the UK’s ambassador to Washington would presumably be too diplomatic to say so, he nevertheless rues the day we left.

Ideally, we should have stayed and reached a more amenable settlement with our neighbours. That was not an option: it was black or white, and we voted out.

Mandelson, like Bailey, is forced to tread a fine political line. Less balance is to be found at gatherings of UK corporate leaders. Even now, five years after going solo, when asked as they often are, how they feel about Brexit, the answer is overwhelmingly negative. At one London gala event, attended by small to medium private enterprises from across Britain, the show of hands registering disapproval was total, apart from one person in the front row who was a Tory peer and a Eurosceptic campaigner. He was sheepish and said he had to, since to do otherwise would see him branded a hypocrite.

Rejoining, however, is not going to happen. Not any time soon, if ever. It is no use wallowing in the past, as many Remainers do, and imagining that the door is open and we can somehow slip through and resume as if nothing has occurred. The UK and EU have moved on, and anti-EU sentiment continues to rage, not only here but across Europe. These days, it is primarily motivated by concerns about immigration, evidenced by the ascendancy of Nigel Farage and Reform in the UK and within other member countries. Only this week, a poll in Ireland found support for EU membership at its lowest point since 2012. Immigration policy was cited as the biggest reason people thought the EU was heading in the wrong direction.

Ireland, like the UK, is in the grip of a housing crisis. Fears over this and the movement of people take precedence over ease of movement of goods.

With Trump, Britain has reached an accommodation first. He speaks our language, we know how to flatter him, he loves the association with royalty, we have indicated the probability of his Turnberry golf course in Scotland returning to the British Open roster has increased – seriously, in the new Trumpian order, the latter matters. It does not mean we will be alone; others will follow suit, among them, the EU. The Brexiteers may claim justification but it is misplaced. We have got in there ahead of the rest, that is all.

It’s reminiscent of the pandemic and vaccines. Then, we were told that our self-imposed isolation enabled us to find a solution to combating Covid. It did, but only by weeks as the EU duly caught up. It was not a uniquely British triumph, harking back as some chose to portray to our glorious, innovative, world-beating past.

That’s where we are with Trump. The truth, as Bailey stated, is that we must secure an EU trade agreement. The US, India and whatever else lands are not enough. We want them, of course we do, but the one we require the utmost is the EU.

In the City, you are only as good as your next deal. That is the approach Starmer et al must adopt. By all means, rejoice at getting Narendra Modi over the line – previous Tory administrations tried and failed – and likewise, Trump. But put down the glass and press on for the EU. Only then can some of the damage inflicted by Brexit be restored.